Post by Cardinals (A) on Jan 3, 2010 13:46:42 GMT -5
Cards draft so far:
Draft position | player | position | real life draft position | bonus
1.1 | Stephen Strasburg | SP | 1.1 | 7.50
1.21 | Brett Jackson | OF | 1.31 | .972
1.29 | Aaron Miller | SP | 1S.4 | .889
2.6 | Chris Dwyer | SP | 4.11 | 1.45
2.12 | Daniel Fields | SS | 6.9 | 1.625
2.21 | David Renfroe | SS | 3.27 | 1.40
3.18 | Chris Owings | SS | 1S.9 | .950
4.1 | Mychal Givens | SS | 2.5 | .800
4.12 | Ian Krol | SP | 7.12 | .925
4.20 | Max Walla | OF | 2.24 | .499
4.21 | Josh Fields | RP | 1.20 (2008) | 1.75
5.1 | Kevin James | SP | 9.30 | .625
Strasburg will be the #1 starter in 2010, and projects forward as a dominant ace. I've been gunning for 2011 as the Cards first serious year of contention, and expect Strasburg, B. Jackson and Fields to all contribute in some form, with Miller a year or so behind.
Aside from these older college guys, I went again with young, high-risk/high-reward types, which I think served me well last year -- 2008 was the first year I really felt like I had a plan going into the draft, and executed it, picking up not only Alvarez and Alonso in the first round, but players like Hak-ju Lee, Jason Knapp, Kyle Lobstein, Ross Seaton and Yorman Rodriguez in 2nd to 3rd rounds, and came *this* close to getting Dee Gordon. I do think I overreached with Melville and Rashun Dixon last year; they are guys I'm glad to have in my system, but I'm now wishing I would've taken a little more advanced players (such as Christian Friedrich, Ike Davis, Brad Holt & Reese Havens, all of whom I ended up trading for) in those earlier spots.
This year, I made sure to go with college guys with my 1st rounders, players that still have significant ceilings but who could be expected to at least get projections next year. I didn't get everything I was hoping for in this draft; there were some specific players I had eyeballed but who got picked more quickly than I anticipated (Jason Kipnis), and I was hoping to get one of the numerous prep catchers that looked good, like JR Murphy or Max Stassi.
I'm happy, though, to add guys like Fields, Renfroe and Givens to my collection of super-athletic, high-ceiling lower-level prospects like Lee, Dixon, Engle Beltre, Zach Collier, Joe Benson, Starling Marte. I suppose the idea is to identify the players of that stripe that I'm most intrigued by, and then to hoard them to increase the possibility that one or more will breakthrough.
It's a similar strategy as with pitchers, where I can now add Dwyer, Krol and perhaps James to a staff of prospects with potential plus-stuff such as Melville, Simon Castro, Randall Delgado, Kelvin de la Cruz. Perhaps now that I've consolidated my multiple young intriguing prospects into a lineup and staff of near-ready and hopefully more elite prospects, I can slow down the constant turnover and just sit on these high-ceiling guys, so I don't end up releasing or trading guys I've created like Feliz or Mejia or Castro or Michael Saunders and then end up having to trade to get them back a year or so later.
I also went away from my all-tools approach with a couple of gamer types, Chris Owings and Max Walla, but I like them because at least some of their tools still grade out as above-average; Owings is actually above average in every tool but power, and I expect him to become a top 10 second base prospect in the next year, with potential to get helium from there. Walla has more flameout potential, but his hit tool looks to be very special, and he has an outside chance to be Jaff Decker-esque.
After Strasburg and Jackson, I'd actually pin the biggest ceilings on Fields and Renfore, as guys who could at least potentially become top 25 type prospects (with the caveat that they have even better chances of doing nothing). Givens strikes me as the most likely bust, but he wasn't a very high pick for me anyway.
All though I occasionally gripe about the non-salary nature of BCMBL, and how it hinders rebuilding teams, it is nice to tally up the real life signing bonuses of my draft picks and come to a little over 19 million dollars, which is much more than any rebuilding franchise would be allowed to spend in real life.
Surprisingly, I didn't go after any young Latino guys this year, though I still have one final pick to go. I'm really excited to see how these guys develop in the next year, and to see what further alterations to my drafting strategy will need to be made, and how eventually/hopefully become a contender instead of a rebuilder may alter my approach.
Draft position | player | position | real life draft position | bonus
1.1 | Stephen Strasburg | SP | 1.1 | 7.50
1.21 | Brett Jackson | OF | 1.31 | .972
1.29 | Aaron Miller | SP | 1S.4 | .889
2.6 | Chris Dwyer | SP | 4.11 | 1.45
2.12 | Daniel Fields | SS | 6.9 | 1.625
2.21 | David Renfroe | SS | 3.27 | 1.40
3.18 | Chris Owings | SS | 1S.9 | .950
4.1 | Mychal Givens | SS | 2.5 | .800
4.12 | Ian Krol | SP | 7.12 | .925
4.20 | Max Walla | OF | 2.24 | .499
4.21 | Josh Fields | RP | 1.20 (2008) | 1.75
5.1 | Kevin James | SP | 9.30 | .625
Strasburg will be the #1 starter in 2010, and projects forward as a dominant ace. I've been gunning for 2011 as the Cards first serious year of contention, and expect Strasburg, B. Jackson and Fields to all contribute in some form, with Miller a year or so behind.
Aside from these older college guys, I went again with young, high-risk/high-reward types, which I think served me well last year -- 2008 was the first year I really felt like I had a plan going into the draft, and executed it, picking up not only Alvarez and Alonso in the first round, but players like Hak-ju Lee, Jason Knapp, Kyle Lobstein, Ross Seaton and Yorman Rodriguez in 2nd to 3rd rounds, and came *this* close to getting Dee Gordon. I do think I overreached with Melville and Rashun Dixon last year; they are guys I'm glad to have in my system, but I'm now wishing I would've taken a little more advanced players (such as Christian Friedrich, Ike Davis, Brad Holt & Reese Havens, all of whom I ended up trading for) in those earlier spots.
This year, I made sure to go with college guys with my 1st rounders, players that still have significant ceilings but who could be expected to at least get projections next year. I didn't get everything I was hoping for in this draft; there were some specific players I had eyeballed but who got picked more quickly than I anticipated (Jason Kipnis), and I was hoping to get one of the numerous prep catchers that looked good, like JR Murphy or Max Stassi.
I'm happy, though, to add guys like Fields, Renfroe and Givens to my collection of super-athletic, high-ceiling lower-level prospects like Lee, Dixon, Engle Beltre, Zach Collier, Joe Benson, Starling Marte. I suppose the idea is to identify the players of that stripe that I'm most intrigued by, and then to hoard them to increase the possibility that one or more will breakthrough.
It's a similar strategy as with pitchers, where I can now add Dwyer, Krol and perhaps James to a staff of prospects with potential plus-stuff such as Melville, Simon Castro, Randall Delgado, Kelvin de la Cruz. Perhaps now that I've consolidated my multiple young intriguing prospects into a lineup and staff of near-ready and hopefully more elite prospects, I can slow down the constant turnover and just sit on these high-ceiling guys, so I don't end up releasing or trading guys I've created like Feliz or Mejia or Castro or Michael Saunders and then end up having to trade to get them back a year or so later.
I also went away from my all-tools approach with a couple of gamer types, Chris Owings and Max Walla, but I like them because at least some of their tools still grade out as above-average; Owings is actually above average in every tool but power, and I expect him to become a top 10 second base prospect in the next year, with potential to get helium from there. Walla has more flameout potential, but his hit tool looks to be very special, and he has an outside chance to be Jaff Decker-esque.
After Strasburg and Jackson, I'd actually pin the biggest ceilings on Fields and Renfore, as guys who could at least potentially become top 25 type prospects (with the caveat that they have even better chances of doing nothing). Givens strikes me as the most likely bust, but he wasn't a very high pick for me anyway.
All though I occasionally gripe about the non-salary nature of BCMBL, and how it hinders rebuilding teams, it is nice to tally up the real life signing bonuses of my draft picks and come to a little over 19 million dollars, which is much more than any rebuilding franchise would be allowed to spend in real life.
Surprisingly, I didn't go after any young Latino guys this year, though I still have one final pick to go. I'm really excited to see how these guys develop in the next year, and to see what further alterations to my drafting strategy will need to be made, and how eventually/hopefully become a contender instead of a rebuilder may alter my approach.
