Orioles 2011 with some Zips

[O's GM]

This lineup is subject to heavy change basically just Zim Votto and Stanton are untouchable.

C: Ramon Hernandez or Castro (per ESPN Zips, Hernandez projects with an OBP heavy .700's OPS, so probably around 100 OPS+)
1B: Joey Votto wRC+ of 158 and 177 in 09-10 entering his age 27 season
2B: Ben Zobrist (possibly of) .358/.428 16/19 SB 112 OPS+ Av/79
SS: Yunel Escobar Av/93 .345/.381 OPS+ 95
3B: Ryan Zimmerman Ex/87 .361/.490 OPS+ 125 entering age 26
OF is where it gets tricky.
likely CF Tony Gwynn Jr 85 OPS+ .329/.335 BUT Ex/158 in CF
likely at least platoon RF or LF
Mike Stanton 112 OPS+ Vg/140 .327/.493 36 HR's
possible platoon corner Will Venable .323/.407 crushes righties Vg in the corners
Andres Torres: was 2nd in WAR among MLB OF'ers behind Josh Hamilton in '10 before getting hurt in September.
Coco Crisp .326/.393 93 OPS+ 23/28 SB Vg/120 in CF
Mike Cameron: Lefty Demolisher, hopefully at least Av in CF or corners
Dave Sappelt: Minor league numbers converted to a 105 OPS+ last year, Vg to Ex D in CF. number 14 BA southern league prospect.
Jim Edmonds: Righty masher: Likely at least Av in CF ~130 wRC+ last two seasons, looking to sign somewhere in real life.

Bench:
Whoever doesn't make it to a full-time from my OF
Castro at C, likely ~100ish OPS+ with pop
Jerry Hairston: .310/.369 88 OPS+ Av/101 at SS/2B/3B
Josh Rodriguez: age 26 .324/.374 91 OPS+ Av/151 at SS/2B/3B
at least one from the DH/1B logjam below

Logjam: I have a ton of 1B/DH types and only one DH slot, so I want to trade. Carter is obviously the most expensive, then Kila/Lee/Cust, Dan Johnson is a personal favorite.
Carter .314/.427 27 HR's Po 1B/LF/RF
Derrek Lee per ESPN zips .261/.345/.435, 19 HR, 79 RBI
Kila: .355/.412 107 OPS+ 20 HR 84 BB entering age 27 Av/98 at 1B
Cust: .362/.411 109 OPS+ Po/ LFRF 21 HR 92 BBage 31
Dan Johnson: .349/.435 111 OPS+ 22 HR and 72 BB in under 430 ABs Has a solid Fr/120 rating at 3B Av/99 at 1B

Pitchers:
Likely 1: Joel Pineiro great FIP and XFIP last two years, solid before that, extreme GB low BB guy for my D
Likely 2: Randy Wells 3.88/3.93 FIP last two years, similar xFIP, which are about 115 and 110 relative to the league. Again, low walk guy with a swinging strike percentage better than Colby Lewis
Likely 3: Tom Milone Age 23 Zips Milone's 8-10, 4.59, 153 IP, 174 H, 15 HR, 42 BB, 100 K, ERA+ 89. The components work out to a 3.98 or 102 FIP+, basically the same as Jordan Zimmermann
Likely 4: James McDonald: 95/53 K:BB in 121 inn 12 HR 97 ERA+, flyballer so not ideal in my rotation
Likely 5: one of Carlos Silva Jose Contreras/Felipe Paulino Esmil Rogers / Mitre, all of whom have their pluses and minuses

Number 2 when he gets back: Kris Medlen 3.35 and 3.78 FIP after crushing minors, another low walk guy with well above average 9% whiff rate

Still looking for an impact arm

Bullpen
likely at the front:
Luke Gregerson: 83/27 K:BB in 73 inn 6 HR 123 ERA+
Kevin Jepsen: obscene FIP/xFIP's in '09/'10 extreme GB'er
Contreras: above average FIP and XFIP as starter every year since 2006, 125ish FIP+ in the pen this year high K: low BB
Matt Beslile- Crushed it for the Rox this year.
Wilton Lopez: Extreme GB'er who only walked 4 guys unintentionally in 72 MLB/AAA innings 10/1 K:BB ratio only 4 HR's allowed. likely SP rating too.
Tim Collins: 21 yo L Zips says 76 K in 71 innings. 106 ERA+ personal favorite
A washout or spot starter from my rotation.

Prospects:
Almost certain consensus top 100 guys:
Chris Carter 1B/LF: luster wore off so likely bottom of 100, but he's needed adjustment time at every level so MLB could be no different.
Tyler Skaggs SP: key chip in the MLB Haren deal. 4 star Goldstein great K and BB rate in full season A ball while still being 18. Solid B from Sickels number 2 in ARI.
Billy Hamilton SS: was considered a raw toolshed before this year. BA people have said hes in their top 100 mix in several chats. .318/.383/.456 48/57 in SB in 69 Pioneer games, a 105 SB rate at the major league level, just turned 20.

Top 100 sniffers:
Carlos Perez: Apparently the next big arm to break in Atlanta's system. Got a solid B from Sickels, which usually means top 50 for pitchers, but BA said hes not likely to hit their 100 yet. Ace ceiling.
Matt Davidson: had BA's best prep hit AND power tools before the '09 draft, then BA soured on him because he didn't show power in low A at 18. This year Davidson showed power average and increasing BB rates in the midwest league before a weak post-promotion stretch in High A at 19. Got a low Solid B from Sickels #3 in ARI.

other good ones:
Tim Collins: BA's 2010 reliever of the year
Tom Milone: pinpoint control lefty in WAS, under the radar because of 45 FB velocity (scouting-wise)
Jeurys Familia: was a top 100 breakout candidate before this season, saw huge spike in K's but also BB's at High A. Still the stuff of a number 2 in a perfect world.
Robinson Yambati: great Rookie KC control guy with good FB and projection top 3 in AZL.
Jake Marisnick - considered 2nd or 3rd best prep athlete in 2009 draft behind Donovan Tate (and possibly Trayce Thompson) but rawer than Tate. Went on to tear up rookie ball (157 wRC+) and then be OK in full season (84 wRC+) at 19. BA's number 10 Jay.
Sal Perez: Hugely underrated catcher in KC's system, great D. 100 wRC+ as a 19/20 in high A!
Mike Main: consensus top 100 going into the year, was healthy and his components were OK before being traded, a victim of being a FB pitcher in the Cal league, though stuff is down.
Sappelt: could make an impact in CIN this year

Have a ton of 3rd,4th rd picks. Looking to package 3-4 picks for something in the 2nd rd

Aching to make trades. One more impact starter biggest need. Especially want to trade from 1B/OF prospect logjam.

In addition to Edmonds, forgot these three prospects:
Jonathan Schoop SS: Two scouts said he'd go in the sup round of the 09 draft if he'd been available. BA's number 10 O's prospect. Goldstein's 6th at 3 star. Great bat control with some pop, earned a promotion to High A at 18 as a reward.
Tyler Pastornicky SS: at age 20, had above average offense at both high A and AA. went to braves in Escobar trade and according to ESPN is seen as a future starter at SS or 2B. 65 runner. solid across the board. Could be 21 in AAA or the majors next year.
Caleb Gindl: Short OF who keeps hitting and playing great D while being young every step. passed the AA test this year at age 21. Don't sell him short, does everything well.

[Red Sox GM]

The most recent update I've seen on Milone says he sits at 84-86 MPH with his fastball.

www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12483

When you say he has a 45 FB, are you talking about velocity combined with a command/movement score because it looks to me like his fastball is at least 1 if not close to 2 standard deviations below average for velocity.

JJ Cooper of BA: "The kind of velocity Chapman showed last weekend almost breaks the 20-80 scouting scale. If grading purely on velocity, a 97-mph fastball is considered an 80, or the upper end of the scale. Subtract eight miles per hour from that down to 89 and you are looking at a 40-45 on the scouting scale. There's nothing in the scouting scale to really account for a pitch eight miles an hour faster than what's already considered an 80."

KG : "For velocity only, the score is generated by the radar gun and the radar gun alone. Average (50) velocity is generally 89-91 mph. An 80 velocity score is 97+ mph, while anything in the mid-80s or below gets you into the 30s and 20s."

[O's GM]

I've seen 87, and for lefties 2 MPH is usually an equivalent discount to a RHP, so it would be like a RHP. So I figure 40-45 (KG's readings have been lower than most sources I've found, as seems to be the case with perceived low-ceiling control guys for him), I just don't figure below average velo to be a deal breaker.

[Red Sox GM]

I've seen scouting scale velocities qualified for lefties before. i.e. - "xx MPH, that's about average for a lefty." I've never seen the 2-8 scale graded on a curve for them though. Since Milone's ZiPs projection was added per a personal request from you, I figured his lack of velocity wasn't an issue in your mind. As a lefty with below average velocity myself, I wish him luck.

[O's GM]

Well, I also mainly requested him because of his success in AA and the Nats lack of MLB impact pitchers, so I figure it's likely he'll get some innings this year, and I figure ZIPS tries to capture all the people who might reasonably see time, along with the top prospects.