Cardinals glimpsed through Pecota y Goldstein

[Cardinals (A)]

So, obviously we're not going to compete this year. But, how does Baseball Prospectus like our future outlook? Good question.

Their PECOTA system has an upside function that looks at a player or prospect's ceiling; here is how the metric plays out:

Excellent Prospects, 100+
Very Good Prospects, 50-100
Good Prospects, 25-50
Average Prospects, 10-25
Marginal Prospects, 0-10

This is purely a statistical metric based on a prospect or player's similarities to previous players; to balance this, I'll also put (where applicable) Kevin Goldstein's 5 star rating for prospects, which range from 5 stars for the very top prospects to 2 stars for fairly marginal ones. Most, if not all, 4 star prospects and up made his top 100.

OK, here's the Cards' depth chart.

Name / PECOTA / # of stars

Catcher

Jesus Flores / 113.4
Wilson Ramos / 34.9
James Skelton

First base

Billy Butler / 213.9
Chris Carter / 3 stars
Cody Johnson / 36.1 / 3 stars
Jeff Larish / 28.1 / 2 stars
Craig Cooper / 38.4
Anthony Rizzo

Second base

Joe Dillon / 70.4
John Shelby / 15.2 / 3 stars
Jose Martinez / 0.4 / 3 stars
Brad Harman / 18.9 /

Shortstop

Stephen Drew / 110.7
Brent Brewer / 22.0 / 3 stars
Will Middlebrooks

Third base

Neil Walker / 92.0 / 4 stars
Beau Mills / 18.5 / 4 stars
Billy Rowell / 49.4 / 3 stars
Pedro Baez
Allen Craig / 23.0

Outfield

Desmond Jennings / 28.3 / 5 stars
Dexter Fowler / 9.5 / 4 stars
Engel Beltre / 17.5 / 4 stars
Nick Weglarz / 43.6 / 3 stars
Daniel Dorn / 57.4 /
Ryan Royster / 14.6 / 3 stars
Fernando Perez / 28.9 / 3 stars
Peter Bourjos / 9.4 / 3 stars
Kelvin DeLeon / 3 stars
Jamie Romak / 13.0 / 3 stars
Jose Martinez / 3 stars

Pitchers

Ross Detwiler / 15.8 / 5 stars
Jordan Walden / 16.4 / 4 stars
Eric Hurley / 28.1 / 4 stars
Blake Beavan / 42.5 / 3 stars
Jeremy Hellickson / 20.4 / 3 stars
Danny Duffy / 31.3 / 3 stars
Hong Chih Kuo / 39.5
Andrew Bailey / 12.8 / 3 stars
Jeff Locke / 14.9 / 3 stars
Henry Alberto Rodriguez / 7.1 / 3 stars
Zach Braddock / 45.4
Drew Miller / 3 stars
Steve Garrison / 28.2
Dallas Trahern / 21.0 / 2 stars
Fabio Castillo

Relievers

Jerry Blevins / 15.3 / 3 stars
Rich Thompson / 28.0 / 3 stars
Kevin Hart / 9.2 / 3 stars
Kenny Maiques

[Mariners GM (A)]

Joe Dillon is a little old to be considered a prospect....but impressive list, nontheless.

[Cardinals (A)]

Yeah, I just thought I'd include him to nudge folks into realizing what a SIM stud he is. He has AV defense at 2nd, and VG defense at 3rd, and can play the outfield, and has a better offense projection (368/559) than Paul Konerko, or Hideki Matsui, or Andruw Jones, or Justin Morneau.

He basically projects as Mark Teixeira if Teixeira could play an average 2nd base or VG third base.