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Johan
Jan 30, 2008 7:21:08 GMT -5
Post by Mariners GM (A) on Jan 30, 2008 7:21:08 GMT -5
It's almost impossible to get satisfactory value for the best pitcher in baseball.
We'll never know what the true best offers from the Yankees and Red Sox were, a lot of it might have been media speculation.
Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Phillip Humber & Kevin Mulvey all to to the Twins for Johan Santana.
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Johan
Jan 30, 2008 7:31:57 GMT -5
Post by Texas (A) on Jan 30, 2008 7:31:57 GMT -5
Does DMB projections factor in who a player was traded for ?
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Johan
Jan 30, 2008 9:47:49 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2008 9:47:49 GMT -5
Its Randy Moss all over again for sure, though if its true the Yanks pulled Hughes off the table I'd prolly would of picked this deal over the Red Sox.
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Johan
Jan 30, 2008 9:53:35 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2008 9:53:35 GMT -5
As a Twins fan, and someone who lives in Minneapolis, I can't say that I'm excited about the deal. But to say that the Twins got screwed is a little premature and probably ignorant.
I've read reports that Johan turned down 5 yrs/$100M from the Twins yesterday. By doing that, he basically forced the Twins' hand. Both Boston and the Yankees have been messing with the Twins since this saga began. Hank Steinbrenner is a joke, and Boston really didn't need Johan, as they probably already have the best rotation in baseball.
That pretty much left the Mets with the only legitimate offer on the table. I think Bill Smith overplayed his hand in this one, but the package he got isn't atrocious. I think all four of the players the Mets gave up have a better than average chance at contributing at the Major League level. Gomez and Guerra have a chance to be truly special, although the distance between where they both are at right now and where they could be is huge. Humber is two years removed from being an exciting prospect, and I have confidence that Rick Anderson will be able to help him at least regain some of the stuff he had pre-surgery. Mulvey isn't an exciting prospect, but I think he'll be a solid contributor to the rotation.
If the Mets actually do sign Santana to a ridiculous extension, this trade has the ability of being very successful for the Mets, and it has the chance of at least being moderately beneficial for the Twins. One angle that is not really being covered, however, is that I think this deal has a much bigger chance of being a disaster for the Mets than it does for the Twins.
What if Santana suddenly blows out his elbow or hurts his shoulder.? What if his breaking stuff suddenly loses its effectiveness? Signing Johan to a 6 or 7 year deal and having something like that happen would make the Mike Hampton signing look genius. Granted, Johan has been mostly healthy throughout his career, but there's always that chance. Sinking that kind of money into one player is always a big risk, but sinking it into a pitcher is even worse.
At least for the Twins, there is the potential of getting a return on their investment with all four of those players, so if one of them fizzles or gets injured, it's not entirely crippling.
Now if you'll excuse me, I've got some more kool-aid to drink.
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Johan
Jan 30, 2008 11:49:45 GMT -5
Post by redsgm on Jan 30, 2008 11:49:45 GMT -5
As a Mets fan I am very happy with this trade... yea the Mets might have no solid pitchers in their farm system but im okay with that because if Johan and the Mets do get the contract extension done that puts the Mets as the best team in the NL East and pretty much the front runner to be the representitive for the NL in the World Series.
I do agree with the Brewers Gm on this... god for bid Johan does get injured (knock on wood) and blows out his arm i think that the Twins definitly would have gotten the better deal here... but like the Brewers Gm said Johan has been fairly healthy throughout his carrer and i think he will remain that way...
Thats my take on the whole thing
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Johan
Jan 30, 2008 15:37:02 GMT -5
Post by Mariners GM (A) on Jan 30, 2008 15:37:02 GMT -5
3 words...
key player insurance
As a Mets fan, I'll miss Mulvey...I was looking forward to seeing him, but I guess I'll have to settle for Johan.
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Johan
Jan 30, 2008 18:38:02 GMT -5
Post by Rockies GM (A) on Jan 30, 2008 18:38:02 GMT -5
Another Minneapolisian here. Sad day lose yet another of our favorite sports heroes. Certainly looks like Bill Smith took a lesser deal than he could have had at one point, but I can't say I wouldn't have played it the same way. He was trying to maxamize the offers, to be honest even the Yankees and Red Sox deals seemed low to me.
If the reports are true, Johan forced the point to an extent (by turning down a $100 million deal) and Smith had to make a move.
That said, it could've been worse. Losing him for draft picks would've been pretty horrible. If it follows that young pitching is the currency of baseball, then the Twins have an embarassment of riches. Smith has showed a willingness to move some of these guys, so my hope is the pitching prospects will develop (and for their faults the Twins are one of the best at developing pitchers), and this move will be one that pays a lot of dividends later on when the Twins start moving them.
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Johan
Jan 30, 2008 19:50:03 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2008 19:50:03 GMT -5
I honestly hope the Twins are waiting for the Bedard/SEA deal to fall through, and then they'll make a move on him. But that's just a pipe dream, and wouldn't make sense if they're building for the ballpark opening in 2010.
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Johan
Jan 30, 2008 22:05:32 GMT -5
Post by Rockies GM (A) on Jan 30, 2008 22:05:32 GMT -5
The part of this that bothers me is that the Twins were never going to get a fair deal here because of the economics of baseball. When Minnesota decided they were going to trade Santana (a decision brought because salaries have gotten to the point that some teams can’t or won’t pay them) they really had a limited market. How many teams could afford the extension he wanted? 5? 6? My point is if the system was truly fair, shouldn’t every team have a chance here? Imagine if the Reds could’ve gotten in on this. Cincinnati desperately needs a #1 starter, especially after Bailey seemingly had an off year. Package Bailey, Bruce and another prospect and that’d be a deal I’d be an awful lot more excited about as a Twins fan or a Reds fan. In this case the economics of baseball have set such an uneven field the smaller market teams are just outrageously handicapped. Consider also that the draft is quickly become a “who can pay the most” event as well and smaller teams are going to lose some of their ability to build a team from the ground up. I just don’t understand how baseball can talk about the parity in the game and ignore things like this. Sure a smaller market team like Minney or Oakland does well once in a while in the standings, but doesn’t anyone have a problem with how the teams are being built? </bitter rant>
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Johan
Jan 30, 2008 22:57:00 GMT -5
Post by Mariners GM (A) on Jan 30, 2008 22:57:00 GMT -5
Cincy doesn't trade Bruce & Bailey in the same deal. Bruce is untouchable, and there's not a scout around that thinks that Bailey will be anything less than a #2, with most thinking he's a #1 within a couple of years.
Ironically, they have other pieces that they could have used in Cueto, Drew Stubs (CF), & Travis Woods + a low level guy....that could have gotten it done for the Reds, put them in a great position to compete with the Brewers and Cubs, potentially run a staff of Johan, Harang, Arroyo, Bailey & Volquez.
I'd take that to the bank!
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Johan
Feb 1, 2008 21:29:16 GMT -5
Post by cubsgm on Feb 1, 2008 21:29:16 GMT -5
It's hard to rate this deal for a couple reasons.
We have no idea what Gomez, Guerra, or Humber will turn out to be like. Will Gomez get some power to go along with his speed and tools? Will guerra harness his potential (it's really too soon to tell what he will be like)? Will Humber live up to the pre-TJ hype? If 2/3 of these turn out well for the Twins and Mulvey ends up being a decent 3/4/5 innings eater guy, this will have been a good trade for the Twins, otherwise, not so much.
The other thing we have no idea of is what the market was really like for Johan. We have no idea if guys like Hughes were ever really on the table, as most of the reported Yankees/Sox/Mets deals were just rumors. We have no idea what went on behind the scenes in terms of extensions for Santana with NY or Bos (if they fell through then obviously his market would have gone to shit, we might have heard a rumor of such, but maybe not). Obviously the A's and O's will get better packages for Haren and Bedard, as they were both younger and both still had 2 cheaper years left before free agency (which doesn't make up for Santana's marginally better performance the past couple seasons).
I think if the Twins knew they were going to trade him they really should have traded Johan pre-2007 or at the 2007 deadline to get max value. ATM I'd give this deal a B- or a C+.
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