2015 St. Louis Cardinals

[Cardinals (A)]

25 MAN ROSTER

Lineup vs RHP

3B Hanley Ramirez | 271/343/449 | AV range
C Jonathan Lucroy | 286/344/436 | VG range
RF Yasiel Puig | 291/365/491 | AV range
1B Adam Lind | 291/356/468 | FR range
LF Starling Marte | 267/325/424 | EX range
2B Rougned Odor | 274/311/450 | AV range
SS JJ Hardy | VG range
CF Jarrod Dyson | 257/317/330 | EX range

Lineup vs LHP

3B Hanley Ramirez | 273/352/469 | AV range
LF Starling Marte | 285/338/469 | EX range
RF Yasiel Puig | 297/386/505 | AV range
C Jonathan Lucroy | 300/365/494 | VG range
1B Adam Lind | 291/356/468 | FR range
SS JJ Hardy | VG range
CF Juan Lagares | 272/315/397 | EX range
2B Rougned Odor | 261/304/401 | AV range

Bench:

3B Mike Moustakas | .242/.295/.399 | AV range
SS Yunel Escobar | 254/316/348 | 89 OPS+ | FR range
C AJ Ellis
2B/SS Ryan Goins
3B David Freese | 249/320/374 | FR range

Rotation:

SP Corey Kluber | 3.03 FIP | 79 FIP- | 9.9 k/9 | 1.9 bb/9 | 0.7 hr/9 | 4.8 zWAR
SP Stephen Strasburg | 2.89 FIP | 77 FIP- | 10.1 k/9 | 2.2 bb/9 | 0.9 hr/9 | 4.9 zWAR
SP Danny Salazar
SP Yusmeiro Petit | 3.47 FIP | 99 FIP- | 8.0 k/9 | 2.1 bb/9 | 1.0 hr/9 | 1.0 zWAR
SP Ricky Nolasco
SP Tyler Lyons
SP Joe Blanton | 4.43 FIP

Injured:

SP Brandon McCarthy | 3.46 FIP | 7.9 k/9 | 1.6 bb/9 | 1.0 hr/9 | 2.3 zWAR


Bullpen:

RP Joaquin Benoit | 2.52 FIP | 72 FIP- | 10.8 k/9 | 2.7 bb/9 | 0.7 hr/9 | 0.9 zWAR
RP Junichi Tazawa | 3.12 FIP | 76 FIP_ | 9.0 k/9 | 2.5 bb/9 | 0.8 hr/9 | 0.9 zWAR
RP Sergio Romo | 3.13 FIP | 9.2 k/9 | 2.0 bb/9 | 0.8 hr/9 | 0.5 zWAR
RP Michael Morin | 3.30 FIP | 88 FIP- | 7.8 k/9 | 2.3 bb/9 | 0.8 hr/9 | 0.4 zWAR
RP Brandon Maurer | 3.22 FIP | 90 FIP- | 7.8 k/9 | 2.9 bb/9 | 0.6 hr/9 | 0.1 zWAR
RP Tony Sipp


Prospects

SP Anderson Espinoza | GCL #1
OF Anthony Alford | MWL #2 | FSL #7
SS Javier Guerra | SAL #4
SP Jharel Cotton | TEX #16
SP Chris Ellis | CAL #9
SP Yeudy Garcia | SAL #9
SP Nick Pivetta | CAR ##8
SS Malquin Canelo | SAL #14
2B Wendell Rijo | CAR #19
SS Engelb Vielma | FSL #19
SP Ryan Yarbrough | CAL #20
2B/SS Luis Carpio | APP #7
SP Marcos Molina
1B Rhys Hoskins | SAL #20
SS Marten Gasparini | PIO #7
3B Yandy Diaz
2B Jamie Westbrook

Depth:

C Roberto Perez
1B Travis Shaw
RP Arquimedes Caminero
RP Ryan Madson
RP Erik Goeddel




STL 4
STL 5

[Cardinals (A)]

I think this might be my team.

I'm excited to have two Cy Young quality starters to lead the rotation. That's something I've never had. And has been the reason, I think, I've been stuck in the first round of the playoffs.

I need rotation depth. I've lost Porcello, Kazmir and Keuchel, but none of them are going to shut down a playoff team. Stras & Kluber can. And since I've had pretty good luck getting middle-rotation starters off the scrap heap -- Kazmir, Keuchel, Carrasco, Petit were all free signings -- I'm hoping that I can fill out my regular season rotation that way.

I've also had good luck on the prospect front. So hopefully by the end of the regular season, I'll be able to trade for some starting pitching depth if Carrasco, Petit & Josh Johnson get hurt or get worse projections than I'm guessing they will.

I also have much more offensive depth than ever before, which should protect me thru the season. My bench of Adam Lind, Rickie Weeks, Yunel Escobar, David Freese, Torii Hunter & Jarrod Dyson are all fairly legit MLB starters. About the only starter I can't afford to lose is Lucroy. Otherwise, I can patch together at least a platoon that'll keep me strong on offense.

[Cardinals (A)]

Now I've added AJ Ellis as backup catcher. Which gives me playable depth all across my lineup. It's wild how, in general, veteran starters are getting so severely underrated in our league...you can't give away a productive guy who is over like 33.

[Cardinals (A)]

And we've added Juan Lagares, which allows me to set up a Jarrod Dyson/Juan Lagares platoon in CF -- which should give me EX range in CF while approximating Coco Crisp's offense.

[Cardinals (A)]

And we now welcome Hiroki Kuroda to the rotation, who is exactly the kind of boring #3 or 4 starter we needed.

[Cardinals (A)]

Top ten prospects:

1. SP Roberto Osuna
2. SP Marcos Molina
3. OF Aristides Aquino
4. OF Micker Adolfo
5. C Julian Leon
6. OF Anthony Alford
7. 2B Wendell Rijo
8. OF Mallex Smith
9. 3B Jhoan Urena
10. Javy Guerra

So, much thinner and younger than usual. I sorta cashed in most of my prospects and picks. But I do feel our league really overvalues prospects. And I've had pretty good luck creating low level guys before they get on the radar. I think some of these guys will really leap forward this season.

But even though we're thin on the prospect front, I do feel that my team is still young and full of upside.

Top ten 25 and under:

1. Yasiel Puig (23)
2. Stephen Strasburg (25)
3. Starling Marte (25)
4. Rougned Odor (20)
5. Juan Lagares (25)
6. Shane Greene (25)
7. Brandon Maurer (23)
8. Roberto Osuna (20)
9. Randall Delgado (24)
10. Marcos Molina (19)

That's better.

[Cardinals (A)]

Glance at 2016 Cardinals using Fangraph's rest of season ZiPS projections:

C Jonathan Lucroy | .274/.336/.417
1B Adam Lind | .287/.358/.474
2B Rougned Odor | .271/.315/.439
3B Mike Moustakas | .253/.312/.404
SS Hanley Ramirez? | .268/.329/.451
LF Starling Marte | .277/.332/.440
CF Jarrod Dyson | .248/.311/.334
CF Juan Lagares | .263/.299/.365
RF Yasiel Puig | .281/.358/.478

Bench

INF Yunel Escobar | .281/.339/.383
3B David Freese | .246/.316/.382
1B Jefry Marte
1B Darin Ruf | .244/.314/.401
OF Coco Crisp | .240/.318/.369
C AJ Ellis | .225/.333/.336
2B/SS/OF Ivan De Jesus | .251/.308/.357

Rotation

1 Corey Kluber | 9.84 k / 1.85 bb | 2.62 FIP
2 Stephen Strasburg | 10.01 k /2.22 bb | 3.02 FIP
3 Danny Salazar | 10.41 k / 2.94 bb | 3.49 FIP
4 Brandon McCarthy | 8.26 k / 1.58 bb | 3.68 FIP
5 Ricky Nolasco | 7.03 k / 2.19 bb | 3.88 FIP
6 Tyler Lyons | 7.27 k / 2.60 bb | 3.97 FIP
7 Yusmeiro Petit | 7.60 k / 2.03 bb | 3.78 FIP
8 Dana Eveland | 7.82 k / 3.37 bb | 4.17 FIP

Bullpen

1 Sergio Romo | 10.20 k / 1.93 bb | 2.62 FIP
2 Junichi Tazawa | 8.93 k / 2.09 bb | 2.98 FIP
3 Joaquin Benoit | 10.16 k / 2.95 bb | 3.06 FIP
4 Ryan Madson | 7.90 k / 2.33 bb | 3.43 FIP
5 Brandon Maurer | 7.60 k / 2.88 bb | 3.31 FIP
6 Mike Morin | 7.99 k / 2.40 bb | 3.53 FIP
7 Colt Hynes | 8.01 k / 1.96 bb | 3.69 FIP
8 Arquimedes Caminero | 9.02 k / 3.74 bb | 3.88 FIP
9 Alex Wilson | 6.15 k / 2.90 bb | 3.89 FIP

[Cardinals (A)]

I was noticing how little carryover I've had on my roster lately. Which made me wonder. Have I improved or hurt my team in the last year and a half. I found a post from before the 2014 season with my roster...to compare...

Lineup

2014 Cardinals:

C John Jaso
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Jason Kipnis
3B Ryan Zimmerman
SS Yunel Escobar
LF Matt Holliday
CF Yasiel Puig
RF Shin-Soo Choo

vs

2015 Cardinals:

C Jonathan Lucroy
1B Adam Lind
2B Rougned Odor
3B Mike Moustakas
SS JJ Hardy
LF Starling Marte
CF Jarrod Dyson/Juan Lagares
RF Yasiel Puig

Verdict:

2014 team has slightly better 1B (A-Gon over Lind) & 2B (Kipnis over Odor). But I think I prefer the 2015 team everywhere else. 2014 team was getting old -- which is why I've made so many moves -- and the defense was really shaky. My infield defense should be strong. JJ Hardy can't hit anymore, but he's a great defensive SS still. Moustakas should be VG next year. Odor might be edging there. OF defense is a big strength for me in 2015. The Cards have given up the 2nd least runs in BCMBL in 2015. A big part is having EX outfield range with Starling Marte in LF and Dyson/Lagares in CF. It'd be nice to have an all-star CF, but I think I can milk the Dyson/Lagares platoon another season...

Bench:

2014 Cardinals:

C Devin Mesoraco
CF Coco Crisp
OF Marlon Byrd
1B Josh Satin
3B Eric Chavez
OF Jonny Gomes
SS Pedro Florimon

vs

2015 Cardinals:

DH Hanley Ramirez
INF Yunel Escobar
3B David Freese
C Roberto Perez
1B/3B Travis Shaw
MIF Ryan Goins
OF Coco Crisp
C AJ Ellis

Verdict:

Having Mesoraco on the bench was really nice. But I like the 2015 bench better. Hanley is a problem if he doesn't project in the infield. He might be a DH for an AL team next year. Maybe 1B? My main goal was to gather subpar starters to be on my bench. Guys I can pencil in for injuries without getting crushed. Yunel, Freese, AJ Ellis, Coco are all that type. Roberto Perez is looking like an ideal backup catcher. Ryan Goins is a fielding machine who seems to suddenly know how to take a walk and get an occasional hit. Travis Shaw is probably a flash in the pan, but if not...he's been weirdly crushing LH pitching. Maybe he could platoon with Lind in 2016?

Rotation

2014 Cardinals:

SP Stephen Strasburg
SP Rick Porcello
SP Tim Lincecum
SP Scott Kazmir
SP Carlos Carrasco
SP Dallas Keuchel
SP Jake Arrieta
SP Tom Gorzelanny
SP Tommy Milone

vs

2015 Cardinals

SP Corey Kluber
SP Stephen Strasburg
SP Danny Salazar
SP Brandon McCarthy (hurt)
SP Yusmeiro Petit
SP Tim Hudson
SP Tyler Lyons
SP Ricky Nolasco (hurt)

Verdict:

Here's where I've fucked up. It was great adding Kluber and Salazar. Kluber/Strasburg is the strongest 1-2 I've ever had. And Salazar is a really strong #3. But man I dealt away some good SPs in Keuchel, Carrasco, Arrieta and Kazmir. I signed all three of those guys off the waiver wire for nothing, which I think helped inspire the thought that they'd go from being Cinderellas and back to pumpkins in 2015. But Arrieta, Keuchel and Carrasco become aces or near-aces, and Kazmir keeps pitching awesome too. For 2016, I'm hoping McCarthy is healthy and gets a decent projection. I'm kind of high on Tyler Lyons becoming the next Keuchel/Carrasco/Kazmir type. I also have hopes that Joe Blanton will be my Yusmeiro Petit in 2016: a guy who has made a few starts but who has dominated in relief and will therefore get a sneaky #3 starter type projection. I think Nolasco might get a surprisingly good projection: before he got hurt, he had a 5.51 ERA but a 2.84 FIP.

Bullpen

2014 Cardinals:

CL Greg Holland
RP Jake McGee
RP Will Harris
RP Steve Delabar
RP Jim Henderson
RP Jean Machi
RP Dane de la Rosa
RP James Russell

vs

CL Joaquin Benoit
RP Junichi Tazawa
RP Sergio Romo
RP Jeremy Affeldt
RP Michael Morin
RP Brandon Maurer
RP Tony Sipp
RP Arquimedes Caminero
RP Ryan Madson
RP Joe Blanton

Verdict: About the same. Relievers are so come-and-go. My general strategy has been to sell high on guys who become closers and then try to build my bullpen either around super effective non-closers (Benoit, Romo, Tazawa, Sipp) who are cheaper in trade and/or sign waiver wire guys who look like they're coming alive (Morin, Maurer, Madson, Caminero).

I didn't have my prospects on the 2014 post. I'm assuming they were better than the prospects I have now. I tend to try and acquire guys (usually via waiver wire) with big ceilings and then cash them in for known quantities as soon as they look valuable. I think this has worked. Sometimes I end up trading away players who turn out to be MLB stars. I've dealt off Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Chris Archer, Jake Arrieta, Jake Odorizzi, Anthony Rizzo at way too cheap. But I've also acquired a lot of really valuable MLers for packages of guys who never put it together.

I've had a good/lucky 2015 in terms of prospects, tho. Anthony Alford, Anderson Espinoza & Javier Guerra were either free agents signed for nothing, or in Espinoza's case, a 3rd rounder. In a lot of cases, I would end up flipping these guys for usable 2016 parts. But it might be worth it to start hanging onto some of these guys for longer, especially as they address spots (OF, SS, SP) where I could use some high-ceiling talent.

Overall, I think I like my team better. It's younger, better at defense, and with a stronger front 3 in the rotation.